Grizzlies Mid-Season Report Card: B

General Overview:

 

After winning the Island Division Championship last year and only narrowly missing out on advancing to the Fred Page Cup, expectations were high for the Victoria Grizzlies coming into this season.  Yet it starts to become clear that the Grizzlies are a team full of contradictions.  On the one hand the team is 13-10-0-5, good for a .554 winning percentage, and in 4^th Place in the Island Division, still in contact with the division leaders, but they have let too many games slip away all year. At first glance you might say that a record like that is one of an underperforming team, especially when you consider where they were last year.  But looks can be deceiving.


Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

Remember that the Grizzlies have already completed two road trips into the Interior to play those statistically superior teams, a feat no other Island Division club has done thus far.  Remember also that this team lost not one, not two, but all three of its top point getters from last year. Remember too that the Grizzlies changed almost all defensemen from a year ago and lost both goalies, including LA Kings NHL draft pick, Alec Dillon to the USHL’s Tri City Storm.

 

So there is the first major contradiction. They may appear  to be underperforming to some degree, but to seasoned BCHL analysts, its pretty clear that the team has faired well considering. Remember this Grizzlies team has faced the BCHL’s runaway favorites, the Penticton Vees twice this season already. Yes they lost both games, but it was with a combined aggregate score of 6-4. And in the second game they went to Double OT and earned a point. With all that in mind, here is how I see the club at the hallway point:

 

Offence

 

When I speak of offence, I am mostly talking about forwards but not exclusively. A quality attack is usually only as good as the first pass out of the zone, so the defensemen do fall under this heading to a degree.  The Grizzlies boast four players, Gibson, Mackie, Gruber and Forster all of whom are averaging over a single point/game and there are two more players who are very close, Matt Kennedy (0.9pts/gm) and D man, Meirs Moore (0.8pts/gm).

 

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

With 100 goals scored in 28 games, the team is averaging 3.57 gls/gm and on track for a goal total in the neighborhood of around 207 goals. In comparison, last year with the Fitzgerald triplets and breakout rookie forward, Jesse Schwartz, the Grizzlies scored 212 times. In 2012-2013, the team only scored 189 times. In other words, one year removed, the Grizzlies offence hasn’t missed a step and in fact is more potent that the 2012/13 squad under then first time Head Coach Bill Bestwick. Both those teams were strong in the BCHL playoffs. In short, the Triplets have been capably replaced and this team spreads scoring around its roster very well.

 

Statistics aside, the team has two very capable lines who can often score for fun when they want. The third line has changed many times, but recently has featured what I call “The Rookie Kid Line” with 16 year old Spencer Hunter centering Mitch Barker and Ayden MacDonald. The line I am really keen on however is the 4th line. I predict that this recently assembled line of P.J. Conlon, Cole Pickup and Nick Guiney will play a significant role in the playoffs as they have shown great promise so far. They are not a typical grinding 4^th line, this group can score and could move up a slot to earn 3^rd line duties.

 

Defensemen Meirs Moore, Zach Dixon, Kevin Massy and newcomer Jake Emilio have all contributed well offensively from the blue line. Moore is silky smooth and Dixon has a cannon.

 

Grade A- (Trend: Status Quo)

 

Defense:

 

The only defensemen remaining from last year’s squad is Kevin Massy. That depleted group alone should be cause for serious concern. But in September, then GM and Head Coach Brad Knight though different.  He chose to deal Victoria natives Brandon Egli (53-11-24-35) and Mitch Meek (45-1-18-19) to Vernon for 20 year old offensive D-Man Jake Emilio and former Richmond Sockeyes rookie forward, Ayden MacDonald.  It would take weeks to get a look at Emilio who arrived injured in the deal, but in time he has proven to be a capable and confident puck moving defenseman.

 

The remainder of the players on the blue line have done remarkably well considering how almost none of them really knew one and other before Main Camp in August.  Enter 20 year old Duluth Minn native and BCHL rookie, Meirs Moore, a smooth passing and skating defender who oozes confidence. The talkative, Moore has quickly become one of the key Quarterbacks on the PP along with the more subdued but hard hitting and hard shooting Zach Dixon. Chris Harpur, Cody Van Lierop and Justin Sadler round out the D Corps well, with solid stay at home play. They are all solid.

 

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

The knock on the defense though is really an admonishment of the entire team this year, the goals scored against. At 107, it is simply too high for a team this good, a team which only averages 10.86 penalty minutes per game. That GAA is too high and represents the Grizzlies biggest challenge in the stretch run to the playoffs. The GAA has slowly been trending upward all season and this trend must change. Fire Wagon hockey games like the 8-7 OT win over Merritt may please the fans, but it won’t win anything over the long term. The 10-4 road loss to Trail was clearly unacceptable, but so too was the defensive performance they showed when they hosted Trail two weeks later, albeit winning 6-5. 

 

While goals against are obviously not entirely a function of the defensemen alone, the Grizzlies have a bad habit of scrambling in their own end when fore-check pressure is heavy and sustained.  The new coaching regime of Craig Didmon will no doubt address much of that in the coming weeks, but a holistic team approach to this problem is required.

 

Grade B (Trend: Improving)

 

Goal:

 

With the departure of 6’6” Alec Dillon in the offseason along with his heir apparent Nick Renyard, the Grizzlies literally had a big hole to fill in net. Returning from the 12/13 Season, the Grizzlies re-acquired Michael Stiliadis and then picked up 19 year-old newcomer, Sean Cleary. Cleary has shown moments of brilliance in 11 starts (3-5), especially his 15 Nov start at West Kelowna where he faced the daunting task of leading the team on the road after the aforementioned 10-4 loss the night before in Trail. In spite of the loss, Cleary was very strong and kept the team in the game late, helping earn the team’s only point during that forgettable Interior swing. Cleary needs more starts and he should get more as the team moves into the stretch run.



Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

Stiliadis (10-10) is your prototypical BCHL net minder, quiet, prefers to be out of the lime light, but works hard in practice and can be relied upon night in and night out. He is also capable of making the really big save. But Stiliadis sports a save percentage of .874 and while that is very close to his 12/13 numbers as the Grizzlies #1, his GAA this year (3.90) is almost a full goal higher than that of Cleary (3.15). Stiliadis is much better than those numbers bear and he along with the rest of the team in front of him need to bring those numbers down moving forward.

 

Grade C+ (Trend: Improving)

 

Special Teams:

 

The Grizzlies' PP lead the BCHL in efficiency for nearly the entire first half of the season. It now sits firmly in 3rd position at 25.42%, an excellent number, especially considering the departure of the Triplets who often made PK units look foolish over the last two seasons. This PP unit is simple, it doesn't get too fancy, it moves the puck very well and involves the point appropriately, never holding on to the puck too long before taking an intelligent shot on goal.

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

The Penalty Kill (10th in BCHL) is also a sound unit, even without PK specialist Storm Wahlrab who is sidelined for the next 2-3 weeks. The PK sits at 78.33%, which is OK, but remember this year the PK boasts no less than 7 SHGF and last year the club could only muster 4 SHGF on the whole season. This unit could easily score well over 10 short handed goals before the playoffs start. And remember, when they think of the PK unit, most people forget to subtract those "Shorties" from the totals for Goals Against on the PK. That correction changes the math around significantly and it is what most coaches use to properly assess a team's PK in the pros.

 

Grade A (Trend: Improving slightly)

 

Coaching and GM Moves

 

The elephant in the room which nobody wants to acknowledge is that the Grizzlies, aside from the Vipers's quiet pre-season Head Coaching change, were the first team to change coaches.  The move was a massive shock to many, myself included. I wish Brad Knight well and he spoke well recently to local media in his departure interview, he will be back in this league one day. That said, I wasn't at the Nicola Valley Arena on 19 Oct, 2014 when the Grizzlies lost in the dying seconds in OT. I will never know what really happened after the game, but the team's Head Coach was suspended 3 games by the BCHL after that game and that fact is simply unacceptable for any Head Coach in any league.  A leader must always keep his head.  In summation, clearly things were not all well "down at the Circle K" and a regime change was inevitable.

 

Now let me preface everything I am about to say by acknowledging the fact that I don't see the team books. But simply from a business model point of view, I wasn't initially a big fan of the trade with Vernon and I am still not. I like Pete Zubersky as a hockey man, but when he came in to take over last December in the wake of Bill Bestwick's sudden departure, the team promised a return to recruiting local island talent and bringing the team closer to the Westshore community.

 

Then quick as a flash the club did two very strange things. It went out and immediately brought in a large number of off island talent.  But then it made a very strange trade moving two local products away. Those were local players who would not incur billet fees and they were traded for two out of town acquisitions who do indeed cost the club billet funds. True, Zubersky is no longer with the team, and the trade I question was a Brad Knight move. But the effect on the team budget both from new billet fees and a departure of the Egli/Meek family and friends must be felt to some degree.  To sum up, I criticise the move from a business model point of view and also because it sent a mixed message of "Say one thing, do another".

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

Now GM and HC Craig Didmon is back, technically for the third time and already he has brought in Nick Guiney, a local JDF product. Good start. In just two games he has demonstrated an ability to right the ship and has shown the capacity to quickly restore confidence and fun on the bench and I suspect the Dressing Room. That is huge.

 

Players are smiling again and while it is only a 2-0 record under Coach Didmon, the team has already seen a modest bump in attendance.  And that last statistic, attendance, is really the most important stat of them all in many ways and could tell the tale of how this team does moving forward.

 

Grade: F (Trend: Improving significantly)

 

Summation:

 

For a change I will be brief. This team has an identity now. The Grizzlies are now officially "that team I sure hope we don't face in the playoffs."  I guarantee every Island Division team, aside from Cowichan (unlikely to make playoffs) now feels that way about the Grizzlies. Nobody wants to run into this team, which is slowly but surely improving in every area of performance and has a restored confidence throughout the entire organization.

 

If the goals against can drop even just a bit and if the scoring keeps up, the Grizzlies will catch most of the leaders in the Island Division and will likely finish well above 4th spot before the playoffs start.

 

Overall Team Grade: B (Trend: Improving) -CC

 

 

 

      

Home & Home Sweep Complete: Grizzlies 3-2 Over Clippers

Five games vs the same Nanaimo Clippers in less than 2 months may seem to some people as an unbalanced and unfair layout of the BCHL schedule is you were a Grizzlies fan. But from the detached and unbiased view of a hockey broadcaster I view it more as an unbalanced and unfair layout of the BCHL schedule.

Nevertheless the Grizzlies were completely ready to face the BCHL goal scoring leaders and high flying Nanaimo Clippers last night as the Clippers bus sailed into the Q Centre for no less than the third time this young season. And it was the dauntless Grizzlies who stood victorious at Centre Ice saluting the 700+ fans last night to thank those who braved a rainy Colwood evening for their support, each witness to a 3-2 comeback win by the home team.

It was the second game of a quick two game Home and Home Series with the Clippers before the Grizzlies kick off a three game weekend with Powell River on Saturday night and the Trail Smoke Eaters on Sunday. The Grizzlies had already won the first half of the series with a dramatic 5-4 win thanks in large part to a late Power Play goal off the stick of a defenseman, Zach Dixon on Wednesday night. Two days later it would be another dramatic win for Victoria. Once again the victory would come at the hands of a defenseman on a late Power Play, this time 20 year old Jake Emilio. And the veteran D Man would make no mistake wiring a point shot into the back of the Nanaimo net, past a lunging Jakob Severson after a set up pass by teammate Kevin Massy.

The win, in conjunction with Wednesday's remarkable comeback at The Frank Crane Arena would vault the Grizzlies back into the conversation in the island standings. Heading into tonight's matchup in Powell River, the Grizzlies now sit only 3 points behind both Powell River and Alberni Valley, with a game in hand on the former. A Victoria win tonight would place the Grizzlies just a single point behind the two Island Division Clubs and create a virtual log jam of teams all fighting for that 2nd Place position in the division standings.

Dane Gibson, back in the lineup last night was a key piece of the comeback after tying the game on a beautiful wrist shot which beat Severson over the left shoulder and drew both teams level after a painful Nanaimo goal put the boatmen up 1-0 with only 0.3 seconds left in the 1st period. Most teams could crumple and panic after going down 1-0 so late in a period, but no these Grizzlies, they literally thrive on this kind of  a challenge.

The night's #1 Star however was net minder, Michael Stiliadis, who stopped  30 of 32 shots he faced and only allowed two goals against the "103 Goals so far this season" Clippers. The Victoria goalie may not have been solely responsible for the win but without some of his dramatic late sprawling saves, the score would likely have been very different. Brett Gruber scored Victoria's second goal of the night off an incredible display of hands, batting down a Garrett Forster pass mid-air to score his team leading 11th of the campaign.

"The Kings of Drama", but hopefully not too road weary Grizzlies take their potent #1 Power Play on the road at 5pm Saturday to take on Powell River at the Hap Parker Arena and then return that evening on the late ferry to the island as they prepare to return to the Q Centre Sunday to face the Trail Smokeaters who will also be in action on Saturday night in Nanaimo. Game time sunday at The Q Centre is 2:00pm.  - CC

Grizzlies Dumped by Trail in Defensive Nightmare

     The Grizzlies kicked off their weekend road-trip in Trail, B.C. as they took on the Smoke Eaters on a crisp Friday night. For the Grizzlies, Jake Emilio slotted back into the line-up after missing over a month due to injury. The Grizzlies were coming off six days rest, with their last contest coming at home against the Powell River Kings last Saturday, with the home team leaving the building with a 4-2 win.

     The first period was the best period for the Grizzlies, as both teams engaged in a neutral zone battle that neither team could get the upper hand. There were only seven shots in the first, with the Grizzlies holding the Smokies to just two shots in the first frame.

Scoreless after one between the @VicGrizzhockey and @BCHLSmokeEaters. Back and forth period that had chances both ways. #FHLive #BCHL
— Tyler Bennett (@TBennz) November 15, 2014

     The second period would be where the wheels fell off for the visitors. What started out as an even battle quickly turned into a horrific series of events for the Grizzlies. It all started with a Cody Van Lierop holding penalty at the start of the period that sent the Smoke Eaters to a power play, and the Grizzlies spiralled downwards from there. It would be Kienan Scott getting on the board first for Trail, as the Smokies would jump out to a great start to the second period. Only thirty seconds later, Harlan Orr would capitalize on a Victoria turnover (which was a recurring theme in this game) to make it 2-0 Trail just a couple of minutes into the frame. What would transpire after the 2-0 goal was indescribable. When the Grizzlies are on their game, they're making crisp tape-to-tape passes and skating with ease. In this case, the Grizzlies allowed the Smokies to skate circles around them, and the amount of turnovers in the second period alone was too much to count, as the Grizzlies handed the game over to the home team. Over the last 11 minutes of the second period, the Smoke Eaters scored six times, including a last second buzzer beater from Jeremy Lucchini to give Trail a commanding 8-2 lead after two periods of play. The Grizzlies did get on the board in the second, as Brett Gruber and Matt Kennedy did find the back of the net for Victoria, but the amount of defensive lapses erased the Victoria markers and buried the road team into the ground with a period still left to play.

No way…. Buzzer beater from Lucchini to make it 8-2 Trail as the 2nd winds down. Unbelievable. #Grizz #Smokies
— Tyler Bennett (@TBennz) November 15, 2014

     The Grizzlies weren't able to get back on track for the third period, as Craig Martin would make it 9-2 Trail in the first half of the frame with a beautiful tic-tac-toe play off a Victoria turnover in their own end. Jake Emilio would capitalize on a Victoria powerplay to get his second of the season, very impressive considering it was his first game action since October 11th. The Smokies would reach the double-digit mark at the 14:01 mark, as birthday boy Max Newton would score his 1st BCHL goal on his 17th birthday to expand the Trail lead once again. A late goal by Dane Gibson would pad his stat total, but the Grizzlies ultimately wind up losing this one big time by a final score of 10-4.

It's finally over; the @BCHLSmokeEaters defeat the @VicGrizzHockey by a score of 10-4. 8 goals in the 2nd period alone for Trail. #TheHorror
— Tyler Bennett (@TBennz) November 15, 2014

     There's no question the Grizzlies' downfall came at the start of the second period. The Grizzlies were unable to recover from a quick two goals from the home team, and the flood gates opened from there. 8 goals allowed in the second period alone were just too much for the Grizzlies to overcome, as the team never found it's traction after the Van Lierop penalty to kick off the second frame. Again, turnovers killed the Grizzlies on Friday night. Although Trail did burn the visitors with their speed at times, the Grizzlies were their own worst enemy as the game dragged on.

     For the Grizzlies, they must recover quick, as they trek on to Kelowna for tomorrow night's date with one of the BCHL's best, newly-acquired Braydon Gelsinger and the West Kelowna Warriors. A 10-4 loss is never easy to learn from and move on, but the Grizzlies are amidst a three-games in three-nights stretch where there's no room for mourning a big loss. There's no doubt that every team, even top teams in the league, go through rough patches and have bad games, and head coach/GM Brad Knight and the rest of the Grizzlies have to chalk this game up as a loss and move on from there. It won't be easy, but the Grizzlies have to regroup and prepare for a tough test tomorrow night. -TB

Showing Up: A Preview of the Grizzlies Upcoming Interior Road Swing

Woody Allen once famously said that 80% of success is just showing up. Meaning with most things in life, well over half the battle is usually won if you simply show up on time and in the right place. After that, everything else just seems to sort itself out. The Grizzlies could have benefitted from those words of wisdom this past Saturday night before they emerged from the team's Dressing Room almost five minutes late, receiving an ensuing Bench Minor for Delay of Game and going down 1-0 early as a result. Oh well it was Parent’s Weekend after all and my guess is that there may have been one too many “Good luck out there tonight sons” in pre-game speeches but in the end the Grizzlies won 4-2 on the night.  No harm no foul.    

Funny enough though, I found myself thinking again on Tuesday about the famous New York comedian’s musings, at least so far as it pertains to the Grizzlies, when I stood as I do every November 11th, in my Canadian Navy No.1A dress uniform at the Langford Cenotaph. There right beside me, appearing in groups of ones and twos, stood each and every Grizzly player. Each were turned out smartly and on time for that hour long and usually cold ceremony, which we as Canadians have grown accustomed to every November. I had Meirs Moore, Jay Mackie and Chris Harpur near my immediate vicinity. I also noticed that there was nobody taking attendance, no coaches or training staff.  Likely that detail was left up to the Team Captain, Shawn McBride to manage and properly so. So there they all stood, each one cold but ever respectful of the occasion, even the "unnamed rookie player" who showed up in a shirt and tie and nearly froze to death. Ah the folly of youth. And they all asked good questions, especially those who were likely new to this Canadian tradition. Woody Allen would have been pleased. I certainly was impressed. 

And that got me thinking about success, meaning the team’s success over this coming weekend.  The Grizzlies departed the Q Centre Thursday to make their way to Trail for Friday night’s first game against the Smoke Eaters and follow that up with a visit to Royal LePage Place in West Kelowna on Saturday night to face the mighty Warriors. Then, thanks to the crazy schedule they head east again for a Sunday Matinee game vs the Vernon Vipers to round out the weekend's action. Three big games in three nights vs the dreaded Interior Division. Aside from the short trip to Prince George in January, it will mark the Grizzlies last major trip to the interior of the province this regular season.

So I thought, let's spend a quick minute or two here and go over the match-ups one by one:

Trail – Friday 7pm – Cominco Arena

Next to the hapless Surrey Eagles, the Smoke Eaters are coming off the BCHL’s longest current losing streak at five games coming into the contest. But the Smokies played hard at home on Tuesday night in a 2-1 loss vs the tough Merritt Centennials and with a large number of returning players from last year, the team features 8 players already committed to NCAA schools.  Third year forward, Jake Lucchini leads the Smokies in points this year with 23 points and 4 PP goals. He is supported by rookie 20 year old, Charlie Zuccarini and his 11 goals and 21 points along with Bryan Basilico’s 18 points in 18 games. The Smoke Eaters move the puck well and from what I saw of their game on Tuesday night, I expect a tight checking game with net minder Adam Todd and his 3.48 GAA.

 

Prediction: 4-3 Grizzlies

 

West Kelowna Warriors - Saturday 7pm - Royal LePage Place

 

Don't look now, but suddenly and in spite of one of the biggest trades of the season, (the acquisition on 3 Nov of Brayden Gelsinger from the Capitals), the Warriors have lost 2 of their last 3 games.  They will be ready for Victoria Saturday night for sure. But the Grizzlies won't forget the Warriors storming back from that 3-0, first period deficit to outscore the Grizzlies on home ice back on Sunday 26 Oct. That heartbreaking loss left a mark and I suspect  the Grizzlies will want major pay-back.  They will check much tighter the likes of Micheal Buonincontri, Liam Blackburn and Jonathan Desbiens, but even with what I sense will be a somewhat lower score this time, I feel this one will end in a tight Warriors 2OT win.

 

Prediction: 5-4 Warriors (2OT)

 

Vernon Vipers - Sunday 2pm - Kal Tire Place

 

This will be the game I am most interested in seeing this weekend, in part because we get to see Mitch Meek and Brandon Egli face their former team. But also because it is the end of a road trip to the interior and I want to see if we can close games out a little better than we did a month ago when we lost late in OT to Merritt. With a modest Vipers two game winning streak coming into this weekend's action, no matter which Vipers goalie gets the call, the Grizzlies will be in tough. The Grizzlies will be tired after four days on the bus and I worry this will be too much for them and the huge crowds the Vipers usually draw at The Kal. But I am going to go for a Grizzlies win in this one, with the kids digging deep on the road setting up for a fun and relaxing post game bus ride to Tswassen Ferry Terminals and on home to Victoria late Sunday night.

 

Prediction: 3-2 Grizzlies

 

So I am going for 5 points out of a possible 6 on the weekend and while that may seem a bit ambitious, especially vs Interior Division foes, I think the team is now primed for a nice big tough road trip. After the positive week they had last week with that win up in Alberni followed by a single but equally impressive OT point vs the powerhouse Vees, the week was complimented by that huge 4 goal comeback vs Powell River on Saturday. This well rested Grizzlies team is pulling on the leech just bit at the moment I feel. While almost all teams have hit the 20 game Quarter Pole on the season, the Grizzlies at 17 games played, won't be there until the end of the Vernon game. So as strange as the BCHL schedule is once again this year, my bet is that the team needs to go on the road now and build on many of the positives from the many team building events they have enjoyed in recent weeks. 

 

Finally, I read CFAX 1070's Steve Duffy's Blog from a few days ago about failing attendance numbers this year at the Q Centre. I like Steve Duffy, but what he said scared the hell out of me. He is as puzzled as any of us about, (let's face fact folks), the really obvious meager crowds we are seeing this season at home games. I get the fact that the high flying Triplets are now gone, I get the fact that there have been a large number of recent changes in ownership and management, but this team plays with one of the most dramatic styles of hockey I have seen in years. So I am calling on all West Shore fans, heck all Victoria fans to get out from behind your 70" TVs, to get away from your Canucks games and come down to the Q Centre next Friday night to welcome the boys back to our barn as we face the Nanaimo Clippers. After all, Woody Allen's famous words don't just apply to the fine young men in those Grizzlies uniforms, they apply to all of us.  If we want to enjoy that coveted 80% of success, we all need to just show up.