Too Soon To Be Talking Playoffs? I Don't Think So

Well folks, it is officially on.  I am talking about the run to the playoffs.  And yes, I am aware that it is December 16th. 

 

Coming off a solid run in November but with two recent weekend home losses, if there was anyone who thought that the Grizzlies would simply stroll their way into 2nd, 3rd or even maybe 1st place in the Island Division anytime soon, those people are now pretty quiet.  But its not all bad.  The Victoria Grizzlies are now officially embroiled in what may be the most exiting playoff race in years.  Frankly, I think the whole thing is good news and is something to embrace.

 

With the Alberni Valley Bulldogs' huge Monday Night Hockey win a few days ago vs the road trip beleaguered Trail Smoke Eaters, the Grizzlies now stand precipitously close to falling out of a playoff spot as they sit just one point ahead of the Bulldogs.  It sets up a literally massive road game on Thursday night for the Grizzlies.

 

And that is my point in this week's blog, this year is all about the season, it’s about the journey, not the destination.  This is arguably one of the most exiting regular seasons I can remember in years. Sure the Grizzlies have had their struggles, but man this is fun.  The Grizzlies are literally fighting for their playoff lives each and every night and so too are many of the other clubs in this amazing Island Division.  Somebody will miss the playoffs on the island, but who?  Alberni Valley?  They could miss out but they just keep winning, they just won't go away.  The Grizzlies?  Maybe, but the team is just way too good to not qualify for the post-season in my opinion.  Could it be Powell River which ends up in that 5th spot?  I don't see that frankly, they play way too well at home.  Cowichan Valley?  No way, not unless something really bad happens at the ISC this season and that just isn't in the cards in my view.  And the Clippers, well they are well ahead in first place and going nowhere soon.

 

I see this as a simple two way race for that final 4th spot in the island Division.  The race is squarely between the Bulldogs and the Grizzlies and frankly I expect it to come right down to the wire.  With a 2-0 shutout loss to the Wenatchee Wild on Saturday night at the Q Centre in front of a sparse and nearly silent Q Centre crowd, the Grizzlies opened the playoff door for the Bulldogs.  After losing again the next day to the visiting West Kelowna Warriors, that playoff door opened even more.  And with no less than 3 games in hand by Alberni Valley heading in to Thursday's crucial showdown at the Weyerhaeuser  Arena, the pressure on the Grizzlies is mounting.  But that's what the regular season is all about.  Frankly, if I was a Grizzlies season ticket holder, I would be so exited, you couldn't drag me away from the Q Centre.  This year, literally every game, every point counts.  That 2OT home loss to Nanaimo two weeks ago and the single point the Grizzlies earned as a result is all which separates the two clubs in the standings.  And that's where the average fan comes in, the average fan can actually make a difference this year.  The noise in the Q Centre could be a key factor as we approach the stretch run.

 

Look, let's not mince words, it was a bit like a library in the Q Centre on Saturday night for the Wenatchee Wild and that was disappointing for everyone.  The fact is that there were just way too many fans (6,600) downtown at The Royals game enjoying their Teddy Bear Toss Night, full stop.  That’s what happens on certain nights in a town like Victoria with no less than 7 junior hockey teams.  So all I will say is great job to the few die hard Grizzlies fans who did show up on the weekend, well done to those fans.

 

Now here is a stat which might surprise you:  the Grizzlies are 7 wins out of 21 attempts vs clubs with a better than a .500 record.  That's means that the Grizzlies have no better than a 33% chance of beating teams with winning records.  That’s not so good.  When the Grizzlies play teams with records less than .500 they are a little better but not much, 6/15 which is a winning percentage at around a 40% clip.  Maybe none of that is very good, but does any of that really matter now? 

 

The fact is that the Grizzlies are very competitive as of late vs the teams which really matter, the Powell River Kings (4-1) and the Cowichan Valley Capitals (3-3).  And with recent dominant performances vs the Alberni Valley Bulldogs including last Tuesday’s 4-2 win on home ice and the 28 Nov 4-2 Q Centre win, the Grizzlies should be able to keep this going and make those win/loss stats mean very little.  But it’s going to be tight.  I truly believe that this season will likely come down to the final week to decide all the playoff spots in the Island Division.

 

 

ALONG THE DASHERS:

 

The Grizzlies now have an open roster spot for a forward now that #9 Haydn Hopkins has departed for the OHL's Erie Otters.  Luckily Head Equipment Manager, Mel Smith had only stitched a single Home jersey for the player who only played but a single game as a Grizzly at 1 GP, 0 G, 0A, -1.  The question now will be who will Coach Didmon sign, an impactful 20 year old or a young player for the future?  My guess is that he will probably first call up a few AP forwards like Cory Hatcher or Nathan Gelsinger from the Westshore Wolves to help get a handle on his local prospects.  Both players are lighting it up in the VIJHL.  Watch this space.

 

This season wearing #26, Mitchell Barker, could be a key veteran vs the Bulldogs down the stretch

So the club is now less than 24 hours away from what is easily the biggest game of the season, the Alberni Valley Bulldogs on Thursday night.  The Grizzlies haven’t had a lot of success at the Weyerhaeuser this season in two early season visits, both losses, so they will  have to bring their A game on Thursday if they expect to get anything out of this huge 4 point game.

 

Oh BTW, if you haven't seen this Grizzlies Christmas video yet, give it a gander:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PJf5T3FZhY  Roy our video guys did more of his magic.  Great job Roy and to everyone in the organization who participated again this year! -CC 

Chapter 1 Complete: Grizzlies Earn A Victory

At long last the BCHL Bauer Showcase is behind the Grizzlies.  Also done with are the two disruptive components of the early Regular Season.  The first was the Victoria Shamrocks Mann Cup Playoff run which kept the Q Centre floor free of ice until late September.  Gone too is the NHL’s Kraft Hockeyville and all of its various trappings which even included Don Cherry and Coach's Corner.  And of course we should be grateful.  Both of these events were a great boon to the Westshore and even to the Grizzlies.  Heck, the Canucks left enough Gatorade in The Q Centre to fill Commonwealth Pool.  But gone most of all is a four game losing streak which wasn't doing anyone any favours.

 

Grizzlies held a lengthy lead in a hockey game for the first time since March

 

That losing streak ended vs Prince George with just over a minute left to play in Double Overtime on Sunday afternoon at Chilliwack’s Prospera Centre.  And it came by virtue of the player who may be the franchise’s most prolific overtime goal scorer of all time, #11 Kevin Massy.  KMass’s late Double OT goal lifted the Grizzlies to a 2-1 win over the Prince George Spruce Kings and closed the door on the first chapter of the new season, a chapter many would like to forget.

 

#4 - Jake Stevens, a Go-To D-Man for the Grizz 

But gone too is a statistic which was really starting to concern me.  Until Brayden Gelsinger’s First Period PP marker on Sunday, which put his team up 1-0, the Grizzlies had trailed for 355/360 minutes of hockey since 7 March, 2015.  Trailing for that long in that many games is rarely a recipe for success on any team.   But asking a room full of rookies to chase games night in and night out is frankly trying to go a bridge too far.  The Grizzlies just won’t be the prolific offensive powerhouse they were last year and that’s ok.  But that means that getting that first goal this season will be bigger than ever, at least that’s what it looks like after five games.  

 

Thus, in less than 24 hours, the Grizzlies will at long last enjoy their Regular Season Home Opener on Thursday night at The Q Centre.  It could not have come any sooner.  With Prince George winning their first game of the season on Saturday afternoon at the Bauer Showcase, the Grizzlies earned the dubious distinction of being the last BCHL team to register a win in 2015/16. 

 

While the Q Centre distractions and extended road trip are in the Grizzlies’ rear view mirror, not all the team’s issues are necessarily behind them at the moment.  The club has registered only 8 goals scored over the first five games of the season, while surrendering 15 against.  The Powerplay has looked fairly benign for the most part, trucking along at a modest 13.64 % to sit at 13^th in the league.  With that said, the Grizzlies do sport the BCHL’s best PK efficiency at 93.75%.  But best of all is the fact that the Grizzlies have only been shorthanded 16 times (lowest in BCHL) in 5 games and that stat suggests a team with discipline and poise.  That could prove crucial if it keeps up.

 

#11 - Defenceman Kevin Massy continues to be clutch in OT

 

But the worry for me is the scoring, it’s just not there, not yet anyway.  Yes, the team has been on the road for four weeks straight and yes, the Q Centre has been filled with lacrosse sticks, Kraft Dinner boxes and NHL fans during this period of time.  But the fact remains that the only Grizzlies players who have been able to contribute offensively with more than a single point this year are players who wear “A”s and “C”s on their uniforms.  That bodes well for the veteran leadership in the room, but it’s not sustainable over the long term.  Forget the Third and Fourth Lines, the Grizzlies have yet to demonstrate any Second Line scoring whatsoever.  The good news is that The Grizzlies are full of talented BCHL rookies who have loads of upside and promise.  It is also good news to report that the chances have been there and frankly, I can’t remember when I last witnessed this large a number of posts and crossbars hit by a Grizzlies team.  On Saturday night vs Chilliwack, Cole Pickup, Nick Guiney and Brayden Geslinger combined for 4 posts or crossbars.  The Grizzlies can and will score more goals, they just can’t wait much longer to make that happen. 

 

That said, help is on the way and the youngsters look ready to play a bigger role.  #15 Kevan Mokhtari (98’), with his breathtaking speed looks to be just millimetres away from scoring a hat trick on any given night and the same can be said of his line mate, #20 Tyler Welsh (97’).  Add to that mix, the impressive 98’ born D-Man in Drayson Pears who broke up no less than two, back to back, 2 on 1 breakaways on Sunday and you can sleep well knowing that help is right around the corner.

 

#31 Mitchell Benson on his way to a 26 saves on 27 shots performance vs Prince George

Meanwhile after five games, the club has been steeled by the fact that both of the new 18 year old goaltenders, Matt Galajda and Mitchell Benson have been better than good.  They have literally been lights out on certain occasions.  Benson for his part on Sunday made several huge stops in OT which bought his team the time they needed to figure out the Spruce Kings goalie, Liam McCloskey who was impressive in his own right.  The Defencemen have been strong in general and the new face on the roster, American Import #2 Chuck Bennis, has assumed a vital role on the blue line, especially with Brett Stirling out of the lineup for the foreseeable future with what is hopefully not a serious lower body injury.

 

The best news of all was what I saw from the many scouts at the Showcase.  Each appeared to be suffering from various different levels of Carpel Tunnel Syndrome while watching Grizzlies games. They certainly were busy scribbling and taking notes throughout the Grizzlies action from what I saw.  If you think that might just be anecdotal observations on the writer’s part, I can sure the reader that I heard personally from many of the scouts and BCHL officials at the Bauer Showcase, that “the 2015/16 Grizzlies are a very talented and young team with loads of potential”.  In short they were all impressed.

 

The Grizzlies salute the sizeable travelling "Grizzlies Nation" on Sunday

So it’s off to the Home Opener tomorrow night at The Q Centre, game time 7pm.  I hope to see you Thursday night.  Until then, I guess I’ll just enjoy this Orange Coloured Gatorade as I type away up here in the Broadcast Booth while I watch the Westshore Wolves play, there's literally cases of this stuff everywhere!  -CC