Grizzlies Mid-Season Report Card: B

General Overview:

 

After winning the Island Division Championship last year and only narrowly missing out on advancing to the Fred Page Cup, expectations were high for the Victoria Grizzlies coming into this season.  Yet it starts to become clear that the Grizzlies are a team full of contradictions.  On the one hand the team is 13-10-0-5, good for a .554 winning percentage, and in 4^th Place in the Island Division, still in contact with the division leaders, but they have let too many games slip away all year. At first glance you might say that a record like that is one of an underperforming team, especially when you consider where they were last year.  But looks can be deceiving.


Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

Remember that the Grizzlies have already completed two road trips into the Interior to play those statistically superior teams, a feat no other Island Division club has done thus far.  Remember also that this team lost not one, not two, but all three of its top point getters from last year. Remember too that the Grizzlies changed almost all defensemen from a year ago and lost both goalies, including LA Kings NHL draft pick, Alec Dillon to the USHL’s Tri City Storm.

 

So there is the first major contradiction. They may appear  to be underperforming to some degree, but to seasoned BCHL analysts, its pretty clear that the team has faired well considering. Remember this Grizzlies team has faced the BCHL’s runaway favorites, the Penticton Vees twice this season already. Yes they lost both games, but it was with a combined aggregate score of 6-4. And in the second game they went to Double OT and earned a point. With all that in mind, here is how I see the club at the hallway point:

 

Offence

 

When I speak of offence, I am mostly talking about forwards but not exclusively. A quality attack is usually only as good as the first pass out of the zone, so the defensemen do fall under this heading to a degree.  The Grizzlies boast four players, Gibson, Mackie, Gruber and Forster all of whom are averaging over a single point/game and there are two more players who are very close, Matt Kennedy (0.9pts/gm) and D man, Meirs Moore (0.8pts/gm).

 

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

With 100 goals scored in 28 games, the team is averaging 3.57 gls/gm and on track for a goal total in the neighborhood of around 207 goals. In comparison, last year with the Fitzgerald triplets and breakout rookie forward, Jesse Schwartz, the Grizzlies scored 212 times. In 2012-2013, the team only scored 189 times. In other words, one year removed, the Grizzlies offence hasn’t missed a step and in fact is more potent that the 2012/13 squad under then first time Head Coach Bill Bestwick. Both those teams were strong in the BCHL playoffs. In short, the Triplets have been capably replaced and this team spreads scoring around its roster very well.

 

Statistics aside, the team has two very capable lines who can often score for fun when they want. The third line has changed many times, but recently has featured what I call “The Rookie Kid Line” with 16 year old Spencer Hunter centering Mitch Barker and Ayden MacDonald. The line I am really keen on however is the 4th line. I predict that this recently assembled line of P.J. Conlon, Cole Pickup and Nick Guiney will play a significant role in the playoffs as they have shown great promise so far. They are not a typical grinding 4^th line, this group can score and could move up a slot to earn 3^rd line duties.

 

Defensemen Meirs Moore, Zach Dixon, Kevin Massy and newcomer Jake Emilio have all contributed well offensively from the blue line. Moore is silky smooth and Dixon has a cannon.

 

Grade A- (Trend: Status Quo)

 

Defense:

 

The only defensemen remaining from last year’s squad is Kevin Massy. That depleted group alone should be cause for serious concern. But in September, then GM and Head Coach Brad Knight though different.  He chose to deal Victoria natives Brandon Egli (53-11-24-35) and Mitch Meek (45-1-18-19) to Vernon for 20 year old offensive D-Man Jake Emilio and former Richmond Sockeyes rookie forward, Ayden MacDonald.  It would take weeks to get a look at Emilio who arrived injured in the deal, but in time he has proven to be a capable and confident puck moving defenseman.

 

The remainder of the players on the blue line have done remarkably well considering how almost none of them really knew one and other before Main Camp in August.  Enter 20 year old Duluth Minn native and BCHL rookie, Meirs Moore, a smooth passing and skating defender who oozes confidence. The talkative, Moore has quickly become one of the key Quarterbacks on the PP along with the more subdued but hard hitting and hard shooting Zach Dixon. Chris Harpur, Cody Van Lierop and Justin Sadler round out the D Corps well, with solid stay at home play. They are all solid.

 

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

The knock on the defense though is really an admonishment of the entire team this year, the goals scored against. At 107, it is simply too high for a team this good, a team which only averages 10.86 penalty minutes per game. That GAA is too high and represents the Grizzlies biggest challenge in the stretch run to the playoffs. The GAA has slowly been trending upward all season and this trend must change. Fire Wagon hockey games like the 8-7 OT win over Merritt may please the fans, but it won’t win anything over the long term. The 10-4 road loss to Trail was clearly unacceptable, but so too was the defensive performance they showed when they hosted Trail two weeks later, albeit winning 6-5. 

 

While goals against are obviously not entirely a function of the defensemen alone, the Grizzlies have a bad habit of scrambling in their own end when fore-check pressure is heavy and sustained.  The new coaching regime of Craig Didmon will no doubt address much of that in the coming weeks, but a holistic team approach to this problem is required.

 

Grade B (Trend: Improving)

 

Goal:

 

With the departure of 6’6” Alec Dillon in the offseason along with his heir apparent Nick Renyard, the Grizzlies literally had a big hole to fill in net. Returning from the 12/13 Season, the Grizzlies re-acquired Michael Stiliadis and then picked up 19 year-old newcomer, Sean Cleary. Cleary has shown moments of brilliance in 11 starts (3-5), especially his 15 Nov start at West Kelowna where he faced the daunting task of leading the team on the road after the aforementioned 10-4 loss the night before in Trail. In spite of the loss, Cleary was very strong and kept the team in the game late, helping earn the team’s only point during that forgettable Interior swing. Cleary needs more starts and he should get more as the team moves into the stretch run.



Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

Stiliadis (10-10) is your prototypical BCHL net minder, quiet, prefers to be out of the lime light, but works hard in practice and can be relied upon night in and night out. He is also capable of making the really big save. But Stiliadis sports a save percentage of .874 and while that is very close to his 12/13 numbers as the Grizzlies #1, his GAA this year (3.90) is almost a full goal higher than that of Cleary (3.15). Stiliadis is much better than those numbers bear and he along with the rest of the team in front of him need to bring those numbers down moving forward.

 

Grade C+ (Trend: Improving)

 

Special Teams:

 

The Grizzlies' PP lead the BCHL in efficiency for nearly the entire first half of the season. It now sits firmly in 3rd position at 25.42%, an excellent number, especially considering the departure of the Triplets who often made PK units look foolish over the last two seasons. This PP unit is simple, it doesn't get too fancy, it moves the puck very well and involves the point appropriately, never holding on to the puck too long before taking an intelligent shot on goal.

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

The Penalty Kill (10th in BCHL) is also a sound unit, even without PK specialist Storm Wahlrab who is sidelined for the next 2-3 weeks. The PK sits at 78.33%, which is OK, but remember this year the PK boasts no less than 7 SHGF and last year the club could only muster 4 SHGF on the whole season. This unit could easily score well over 10 short handed goals before the playoffs start. And remember, when they think of the PK unit, most people forget to subtract those "Shorties" from the totals for Goals Against on the PK. That correction changes the math around significantly and it is what most coaches use to properly assess a team's PK in the pros.

 

Grade A (Trend: Improving slightly)

 

Coaching and GM Moves

 

The elephant in the room which nobody wants to acknowledge is that the Grizzlies, aside from the Vipers's quiet pre-season Head Coaching change, were the first team to change coaches.  The move was a massive shock to many, myself included. I wish Brad Knight well and he spoke well recently to local media in his departure interview, he will be back in this league one day. That said, I wasn't at the Nicola Valley Arena on 19 Oct, 2014 when the Grizzlies lost in the dying seconds in OT. I will never know what really happened after the game, but the team's Head Coach was suspended 3 games by the BCHL after that game and that fact is simply unacceptable for any Head Coach in any league.  A leader must always keep his head.  In summation, clearly things were not all well "down at the Circle K" and a regime change was inevitable.

 

Now let me preface everything I am about to say by acknowledging the fact that I don't see the team books. But simply from a business model point of view, I wasn't initially a big fan of the trade with Vernon and I am still not. I like Pete Zubersky as a hockey man, but when he came in to take over last December in the wake of Bill Bestwick's sudden departure, the team promised a return to recruiting local island talent and bringing the team closer to the Westshore community.

 

Then quick as a flash the club did two very strange things. It went out and immediately brought in a large number of off island talent.  But then it made a very strange trade moving two local products away. Those were local players who would not incur billet fees and they were traded for two out of town acquisitions who do indeed cost the club billet funds. True, Zubersky is no longer with the team, and the trade I question was a Brad Knight move. But the effect on the team budget both from new billet fees and a departure of the Egli/Meek family and friends must be felt to some degree.  To sum up, I criticise the move from a business model point of view and also because it sent a mixed message of "Say one thing, do another".

Photo Credit: Christian J. Stewart

 

Now GM and HC Craig Didmon is back, technically for the third time and already he has brought in Nick Guiney, a local JDF product. Good start. In just two games he has demonstrated an ability to right the ship and has shown the capacity to quickly restore confidence and fun on the bench and I suspect the Dressing Room. That is huge.

 

Players are smiling again and while it is only a 2-0 record under Coach Didmon, the team has already seen a modest bump in attendance.  And that last statistic, attendance, is really the most important stat of them all in many ways and could tell the tale of how this team does moving forward.

 

Grade: F (Trend: Improving significantly)

 

Summation:

 

For a change I will be brief. This team has an identity now. The Grizzlies are now officially "that team I sure hope we don't face in the playoffs."  I guarantee every Island Division team, aside from Cowichan (unlikely to make playoffs) now feels that way about the Grizzlies. Nobody wants to run into this team, which is slowly but surely improving in every area of performance and has a restored confidence throughout the entire organization.

 

If the goals against can drop even just a bit and if the scoring keeps up, the Grizzlies will catch most of the leaders in the Island Division and will likely finish well above 4th spot before the playoffs start.

 

Overall Team Grade: B (Trend: Improving) -CC

 

 

 

      

We Are The Brave: Grizzlies vs Penticton Vees - 7 Nov, 2014

     Earlier this past week I had an opportunity to listen to my broadcast partner Tyler Bennett's interview with Alex Rawnsley (Voice of PR Kings) on The Powell River Kings Weekly Radio Show. While listening, I heard Alex pose that question most of us Grizzlies fans have been struggling with all year:  So just who are these Grizzlies, what is their team identity?  Tyler gave a good answer, but in the end he had to admit that even he wasn't sure what to say about the team's full identity. Funny enough though, one word he didn't use in the interview was the word "brave".

     Tonight that word "brave", just kept coming at me all night. Its kind of been a theme of the team all week, but more on that later. That term brave just sort of kept coming up as I watched the Grizzlies take the ice and stare down the Penticton Vees. The Grizzlies stood right up to those talent laden Penticton Vees, just days after the Vees were announced as the CJHL's top team in the country in Monday's newly released national rankings. Then I looked over at the Grizzlies, a team who score a bit less, a team who don't yet have a large number of highly coveted future NHL draft prospects, a team made up of very solid BCHL players, but few who would make you immediately take national level notice.

     Brave indeed you would have to be in order to take on a team like Penticton and actually think that you stood a chance. I thought I noticed it, ever so slightly in some of my pre-game conversations with a few of the Grizzlies players. There were maybe just a few more than usual pre-game nerves I thought I noticed and who could blame them?  Heck they were playing the Penticton Vees, a team which was 16-2 with a +50 goal differential going into action at The Q Centre last night. If it were me, I would be way more than nervous, I'd likely be visiting the washroom more than once or twice if I was asked to face the mighty leaders of the BCHL.

     Maybe it was that song which our video man, Roy Anthonisen chose for his YouTube video of the team this week as they visited the Canadian Navy's elite divers at FDU(P). In the video each player participates in the dreaded and painful morning swim to the music "We Are The Brave".  I am not sure, but for whatever reason, all night as I watched the Grizzlies withstand rush after rush by Penticton, attack after attack, hit after hit, I kept thinking of that melody in Roy's video: We are The Brave, We are the Brave.

     And brave they were, right from the opening faceoff.  The Grizzlies went right at the Vees from the get go. They didn't sit back, instead they attacked the Vees immediately. And the Grizzlies were soon rewarded after a fine bit of play from the Jay Mackie, Dane Gibson and Matt Kennedy line as all three were buzzing around the Vees' net. After a forced turnover, Matt Kennedy scored his 7th of the campaign on a beautiful move off the far corner boards and straight into the slot with a wrister that leaked between the pads of Vees net minder Brendan Barry.  1-0 Grizzlies!

     Only moments later, the newly assembled line of P.J. Conlon, Mitch Barker and Storm Wahlrab struck. It started as big #27 took out two Vees at the point, allowing space for Barker to steal the puck off the stick of a hapless Gabe Bast, and smartly passed it to his nimble Centre, Conlon who's quick wrister found the back of the net. 2-0 Grizzlies! Storm Wahlrab didn't pick up a point on the play, but the space he made by hammering the two Vees players at the blue line delayed any Vees help in front of the Penticton net and gave Conlon all the time in the world to snap home his 4th of the year.

     It was starting to look like Deja Vu all over again, with yet another big Grizzlies lead materializing early in a 1st period. It looked even more like pervious games when the Grizzlies took a late penalty in the period, Ayden MacDonald receiving a charging call and on the ensuing PP, the Vees finally striking. On the play, Vees defenseman Mike Lee sent a 100 foot breakout pass right down the centre of the ice, splitting the four Grizzlies penalty killers and found an all alone Jack Ramsay. The Chicago Blackhawks prospect would not disappoint, as he picked up the pass at the blue line and streaked in all alone, firing a long wrist shot which beat Michael Stiliadis on the blocker side. It was a PP goal, for Ramsey's and his 5th goal of the year as the two teams retired at the end of the first period with the Grizzlies holding a slim but nonetheless impressive 2-1 lead.

     Just a minute into Period #2 the Vees would strike again off a strange deflection from in front of the net. Riley Alferd would somehow deflect a harmless looking Patrick Sexton shot from the point and the score was suddenly 2-2. At that point you were thinking, oh boy, here we go, here come the Vees, but Victoria would not back down. They were brave once again, they stood up and said no, not tonight, not on my watch. That takes guts.

     Brett Gruber would answer at the 1:22 minute mark of the same period just moments after the Vees had equalized. A smart pinch by Shawn McBride kept the puck in the zone and after Brett Gruber was able to get the puck behind the net to Cole Pickup, the Victoria native was able to make a perfect pass across the Vees' crease to find an open Garrett Forster. Forster then tipped the puck back again to McBride who finally found the forgotten Brett Gruber alone on the side of the net and it was too easy for Gruber who quickly dispatched his team leading 8th of the year, 3-2 Grizzlies! You could almost hear the music.  We are The Brave, We are The Brave!

     The scary moment of the evening would happen halfway through that second period as #25, Quinn Thompson, with his head down and defenseless, would take a huge hit as he tried to rush the puck up the right boards and out of the zone. He would quickly rise to his feet and minus a glove, he would head straight to the Change Room and not return in the contest. That took guts, major guts.

     But bravery won't help you if you are down a man all night and a Roughing penalty to Cody Van Lierop late in the 2nd period would create the opportunity for the Vees to draw level. But the tying goal did not come without what this sports writer thought at the times was major, although mostly unnoticed controversy. As it turned out I was wrong on the broadcast and the keep in at the point by Bast was well executed and completely devoid of any help from the bench. At the time however, it sure looked like Bast had some help from many pairs of hands on the bench. After Brett Gruber's clearance from the corner was legally batted down by Bast, the puck would be passed around the Grizzlies end by a number of Vees. Then Bast once again was in a position to be able to sneak into the slot and bury a one time shot past Stiliadis.

     Sounds like a good time for some more bravery and resilience by the Grizzlies. Enter Micheal Stiliadis.

     The Victoria net minder put on an absolute clinic in the 3rd period, turning back shot after shot and leaving a lot of Vees players scratching their heads. It was pay back for the Vees bench "Hand Ball" in the 2nd period. On countless occasions, Stiliadis would stretch out to block shots and flail his body in all directions, each time turning away the Vees attack. As the seconds ticked down you could see, we were going to be heading to OT. The Drama Kings, (my nickname for this year's Grizzlies) would have it no other way. So off to OT we went, secure in the fact that no matter what, the Grizzlies had just secured a vital single point against the #1 ranked junior hockey team in the country, a feat which took a lot of guts.

      We won't talk too much about the OT, other than to say that once again the Grizzlies went head to head with the Vees and actually outshot the visitors in the first OT. But the game would end in the second OT period with 3 on 3 action, after a speeding Matt Serratore, an Air Force prospect, burst down the left wing after being sprung on a long stretch pass by Jack Ramsey. Serratore scored after collecting his own long rebound (a rare event on the night), firing a second time into the small opening in the net and ending the game 4-3 to Penticton.

     And that was how the hockey game would end, half heart breaker, but half major encouragement for the Grizzlies. It was incredibly the Victoria Grizzlies BCHL leading fourteenth single goal differential game of the season.

     Sure, it was an OT loss and those are never fun. But the Grizzlies scored three big goals vs the top team in the country, and took them to OT.  Remember the Vees are a team which two weeks ago beat the Surrey Eagles in 11-0 and 10-0 respective score lines during a recent Home and Home series. Standing up to that type of offence, standing up to that kind of a team takes a lot. But one big thing it undisputedly requires is guts and bravery. And bravery is what this 2014-15 Grizzlies team has loads of and what will in the end take this team to the next level.

     That's what I see as this team's identity: drama and guts.

     The Grizzlies host the Powell River Kings tonight at 7pm at the Q Centre. -CC



    
    

PREVIEW: Grizzlies vs. Vees, 11/7/14

    The Victoria Grizzlies play their first home game in nearly two weeks against a tough task, the Penticton Vees. For the Grizzlies, they're trying to claw their way back into contention in the Island Division despite an over .500 record, while the Vees are already in cruise control in the Interior Division with a healthy ten point lead on the rest of the division. For the Grizzlies, there's no tougher test in the league than the powerhouse Vees, which represents an opportunity for the boys in black and yellow to boost their confidence and morale with a chance to take down the top Jr. A team in the country.

     The Victoria Grizzlies (7-6-0-2, 16pts, 4^th Island Division)  are coming off a 5-2 win against Alberni Valley on November 1^st, coming off 6 days rest. Victoria is still trying to find consistency in their game, as they haven't been able to produce a consistent 60-minute product so far this season. The Grizzlies have 2 games in 2 nights before taking another 6-day break after this weekend.

     Meanwhile, the Penticton Vees (16-2-0-0, 32pts, 1st Interior Division) are coming off a 3-2 loss against the West-Kelowna Warriors earlier in the week. The Vees are also playing two games in two nights. Penticton has 80 goals for, 30 against for a  +50 differential on the season, over 4 goals a game on average while giving up under 2 goals a game on defence on average. The Vees are the top Jr. A team in the country to date.

     The last meeting between these two teams came on October 18^th in Penticton, Liam Findlay’s 2^nd period marker would be enough for the Vees to squeak out a 2-1 win at home. More advertised, it was a war of words, as Brad Knight guaranteed that the next time they played, the Victoria squad would defeat the powerhouse Vees, Storm Wahlrab also called the Penticton team a small and not very physical. This did not bode well with Vees head coach Fred Harbinson who defended his team with some salt for the Grizzlies head coach.

     The Grizzlies are coming off a six-day layoff, with their last game being on the road in Alberni Valley on November 1st. For the Grizzlies, it will be a matter of getting their jump back in their step to start the hockey game, and there's no tougher test to try and shake off the rust than the Penticton Vees.

     The Grizzlies special teams have been the highlight of the team so far this season, clicking at 30.5% (1^st in BCHL), and although their PK is only at 78.5% (9^th in BCHL), they’re also tied for 1^st in the BCHL with six shorthanded goals.

     Penticton has 80 goals as a team, 133 assists already, great puck moving team that executes with precision and power, lead by Harvard commit Lewis Zerter-Gossage (9G,14A 23PTS) and Michigan Tech commit Demico Hannoun (13G 7A 20PTS). Hannoun is the older brother of Victoria Royals forward Dante Hannoun. The Vees are similar to the Grizzlies in the fact that the Vees get their scoring from all four lines, maybe on a larger scale than Victoria, but still on the same system.

    For Victoria, Cole Pickup is on fire right now; he was held to 4 assists in first 12 games,but recently, Pickup has  4 goals, 2 assists in last three games and has seemed to re-gain confidence in his offensive game.  Jay Mackie is playing his first game since committing to Holy Cross College (NCAA Div. 1 in Worcester, Massachusetts) for the 2015-16 season. Mackie is currently second in Grizzlies scoring with 5 goals, 12 assists in 15 games this season. Mackie has accumulated 45 points in 72 games in his BCHL career so far.

      Be sure to tune in on either fasthockey.com or awdio.com/victoriagrizzlies to watch or listen to the game, it's going to be a great one! - TB