The Value of Momentum

It was a wet and cold night going over the Malahat on Tuesday night, but that didn't seem to worry the Grizzlies who were playing in the rubber match in a season long series vs the Cowichan Valley Capitals which was tied 3-3 at the time.  In less than three hours, the Grizzlies bus would be on its return trip, this time flush with two points on the road after a commanding 7-1 win over the Capitals who frankly looked shell shocked after suffering such a significant loss a home.

The game surprised everyone, but not the first period.  In spite to a pair of penalties against the Grizzlies, shots at the end of the Period #1 were 15-5 in favour of the visitors.  The Grizzlies had plenty of chances but the key moment in the entire game for me was a curious decision by Coach Craig Didmon to use up his timeout with only 51 seconds left in the period.  After an icing call which left his charges gassed, Didmon recognised the strategic significance of what it would mean to suddenly give up a goal so late in the period after dominating it so well.



The ISC, sight of the 7-1 Grizzlies victory on Tuesday night

The timeout worked and moments later the Grizzlies and Caps retired to their respective rooms tied at 0-0 but with Victoria still enjoying the full balance of momentum.  In my humble view, it was the turning point of the contest.

Just a minute and a half into the second period, that momentum would prove vital as the Grizzlies would score off a beautiful half spin move by #17 Joey Visconti.  The Ontario native found himself parked at the right side of Cowichan goalie Storm Phaneuf's crease after a long pass from Illinois D-Man, Jake Setvens who spotted Visconti heading through the slot.  Visconti, waited out Phaneuf and fired the puck over the former QMJHL goal tender and the Grizz were in front for the first time.

Late in the period the Captain, PJ Conlon, who was +5 on the night, would score what looked like a PP goal but with time expiring on the penalty to the Caps, Brayden Gelsinger would make a beautiful cross ice pass from the slot and feed Conlon who was beavertailing for the pass at the far right of Phaneuf.  Conlon dispatched a picture perfect one-timer and suddenly it was 2-0 Grizzlies on the road versus a team who won all three of the first meetings between the two clubs.

The PG Coliseum at -11 without wind chill will host the Grizzlies Friday night

But the bigger story of the game to that point however was Matt Galajda, once again turning back shot after shot and when necessary halting play when he felt pressure.  This goalie is starting to now garner the attention of the whole league.  His GAA numbers are now in the top 3 and his win-loss record in the last two months is as good as any goalie in the league.

But it was the third period which saw what is really interesting about this year's Victoria Grizzlies.  This team is truly a team of redemption.  After suffering through the worst start in franchise history, the Grizzlies now seem to have shaken off the past and are scoring at will on most nights.  They are also defending with a fierce determination.

Saturday night will see the Grizz return to Chilliwack, site of the team's frist win of the 2015/16 season

With two more quick goals, Conlon would earn a natural hat trick early into the third period which would be his first as a Grizzly but more importantly would represent the team's second hat trick in three games after witnessing Gelsinger's 3 goal performance on Friday night versus the Kings.  The period would continue to go all Grizzlies with Pickup scoring a goal along with his three assists but only after Gelsinger (my pick for BCHL Player of the Week BTW) would score his 6th goal in three games.  The game would end with a Nick Guiney unassisted goal on a breakaway created by the Langford native who timed a wayward interception in the neutral zone perfectly.

Sunday, the Grizzlies will close out the 4 game road swing on the Olympic size surface in Surrey

The Grizzlies now get set for three big games on the road in the longest road trip of the year in Prince George, Chilliwack and Surrey.  In PG, the Grizzlies will see A/HC Tyler Matheson behind the bench for the very first time as the Acting HC with Coach Didmon back in Victoria with school teaching duties.  We will now see if this surging Grizzlies club, the only BCHL team without a defeat in the 2016 calendar year can keep this theme of redemption and its incredible momentum on the rise as the month of January reaches the midway mark.  Talk to you from the Prince George Coliseum on Friday night everybody. -CC

Horse Shoes and Hand Grenades: Struggling Grizz

I know what you are thinking.  The Grizzlies are close.  Yes they are.  Its only a matter of time.  They are close indeed.  But the problem which I have with that saying is that close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.  Close doesn't count in hockey.  Hitting a post doesn't get your team a goal.  In fact, it often creates a weird bounce and an odd man rush in the other direction.  OK, done venting.

The Grizzlies are 1-8-0-2 or something like that.  They have two points because they forced a couple of OTs but lost the games.  OK, I will admit, it isn't great and I have been saying that I think its coming around, but man, I am so tired of hearing people tell me how close they are all the time.  I can see it with my own eyes, yes, I get it, the Grizzlies are close.  But they are not close enough, not yet anyway.

Here is what bothers me:  330 shots in 11 games.  Most would like to see that average of 30 shots per game be a bit higher.  But with only 20 goals scored, that means that the Grizzlies score on only 6.06% of their shots.  It means that opposing goalies are holding a nice big fat .939 save percentage on Grizzlies shooters after 11 games.  Ask any coach in any league what he would pay for a goalie with a save percentage of .940 and do you know what he will tell you?

"Oh yeah? How much?"  (think John Cleese Monty Python Life of Brian)

"A lot."

"Right you're in."

But 20 goals in 11 games just won't do it and the season is almost at the Quarter Pole.  The current Grizzlies squad is on pace to score 109 goals this season which would set a new league record in terms of least goals scored in a Regular Season.  The old record was the 2012/13 Vernon Vipers at 139 and next in line is last year's 9 win Surrey Eagles team at 141 goals scored.  Sorry, but its true.

Now, I know what you are saying: "But Clay its still so early and the sample size is way too small, be patient!"  I hear that at every game and I get it.  Frankly, I am being patient, in fact the last time we talked I was preaching patience.  I am still preaching patience on everyone's part by the way. 

And its not all bad news.


#15 Keyvan Mokhtari at a modest -2, a rookie Didmon now plays a lot

Look, Tyler Welsh (2G), Keyvan Mokhtari (0G) and Spencer Hunter (0G) are not lighting it up offensively, although Welsh scored that pair vs Cowichan last Friday night at the ISC which was good to see.  And neither are Alex Peck (1G) or Nick Guiney (3G).  But did you know that each of those forwards currently lead practically all Grizzlies skaters in +/- so far on the season? 

Sure you say, they are all forwards, that's easy.  And yes they all play a lot of 3rd and 4th Line minutes, but some of them like Welsh and Mokhtari are starting to see much more ice time as of late.  My point is, each of them usually finish most games "Even" on the night.  Now that may not sound like much to shout about, but on a team who has scored only 20 goals and surrendered 37 for a team goal differential of -17, I would suggest that being -2 or -3 after 11 games on this team is pretty good, no matter who you are.

As I have said, I also really like both the goalies, Galajda and Benson. They are young and strong and they are keeping the Grizzlies in every game.  But what happens when they have an off night?



Can the new Grizzlie, #9 Luc Soares ignite the Grizzlies' offense?

The question now for me will be what Head Coach and GM Craig Didmon will do with his forwards.  The Chuck Bennis move on D as I have already stated was very good in my opinion.  On Tuesday Didmon released forward Sage Fleming. With the roster spot open he brought in via futures Luc Soares from the equally struggling Prince George Spruce Kings.  Soares is likely much better than the 4th Line minutes he was getting up in PG under new HC Chad van Diemen.  Could the new gig at The Q Centre spur him on and ignite the Grizzlies offense?  Didmon certainly hopes so, not to mention the nearly 1,000 patient fans at the Q Centre each night so far this season.

Will an unsigned Colby Livingstone create another Grizzlies move?

Add to that is the presence of another forward in Colby Livingstone from the KIJHL's Creston Thunder Cats and there may be another move not too far away. That will especially be true if Livingstone is more than just a very strong Jr. B forward.  Time will tell on that one.

But saying things like "they're close" just won't do it now, not for me anyway.  The Grizzlies are rapidly falling astern of not only the Island Division leaders, but with three losses to Alberni Valley, the Bulldogs in 4th place are now starting to pull away from contact with their Southern Island opponent Grizzlies.

The question now will be, can the Grizzlies start firing pucks into the net at a rate above 1.81/game?  Because horse shoes and hand grenades just aren't doing it at the moment.

The Grizzlies host the Powell River Kings Friday Night at The Q Centre, see you there. -CC 

Chapter 1 Complete: Grizzlies Earn A Victory

At long last the BCHL Bauer Showcase is behind the Grizzlies.  Also done with are the two disruptive components of the early Regular Season.  The first was the Victoria Shamrocks Mann Cup Playoff run which kept the Q Centre floor free of ice until late September.  Gone too is the NHL’s Kraft Hockeyville and all of its various trappings which even included Don Cherry and Coach's Corner.  And of course we should be grateful.  Both of these events were a great boon to the Westshore and even to the Grizzlies.  Heck, the Canucks left enough Gatorade in The Q Centre to fill Commonwealth Pool.  But gone most of all is a four game losing streak which wasn't doing anyone any favours.

 

Grizzlies held a lengthy lead in a hockey game for the first time since March

 

That losing streak ended vs Prince George with just over a minute left to play in Double Overtime on Sunday afternoon at Chilliwack’s Prospera Centre.  And it came by virtue of the player who may be the franchise’s most prolific overtime goal scorer of all time, #11 Kevin Massy.  KMass’s late Double OT goal lifted the Grizzlies to a 2-1 win over the Prince George Spruce Kings and closed the door on the first chapter of the new season, a chapter many would like to forget.

 

#4 - Jake Stevens, a Go-To D-Man for the Grizz 

But gone too is a statistic which was really starting to concern me.  Until Brayden Gelsinger’s First Period PP marker on Sunday, which put his team up 1-0, the Grizzlies had trailed for 355/360 minutes of hockey since 7 March, 2015.  Trailing for that long in that many games is rarely a recipe for success on any team.   But asking a room full of rookies to chase games night in and night out is frankly trying to go a bridge too far.  The Grizzlies just won’t be the prolific offensive powerhouse they were last year and that’s ok.  But that means that getting that first goal this season will be bigger than ever, at least that’s what it looks like after five games.  

 

Thus, in less than 24 hours, the Grizzlies will at long last enjoy their Regular Season Home Opener on Thursday night at The Q Centre.  It could not have come any sooner.  With Prince George winning their first game of the season on Saturday afternoon at the Bauer Showcase, the Grizzlies earned the dubious distinction of being the last BCHL team to register a win in 2015/16. 

 

While the Q Centre distractions and extended road trip are in the Grizzlies’ rear view mirror, not all the team’s issues are necessarily behind them at the moment.  The club has registered only 8 goals scored over the first five games of the season, while surrendering 15 against.  The Powerplay has looked fairly benign for the most part, trucking along at a modest 13.64 % to sit at 13^th in the league.  With that said, the Grizzlies do sport the BCHL’s best PK efficiency at 93.75%.  But best of all is the fact that the Grizzlies have only been shorthanded 16 times (lowest in BCHL) in 5 games and that stat suggests a team with discipline and poise.  That could prove crucial if it keeps up.

 

#11 - Defenceman Kevin Massy continues to be clutch in OT

 

But the worry for me is the scoring, it’s just not there, not yet anyway.  Yes, the team has been on the road for four weeks straight and yes, the Q Centre has been filled with lacrosse sticks, Kraft Dinner boxes and NHL fans during this period of time.  But the fact remains that the only Grizzlies players who have been able to contribute offensively with more than a single point this year are players who wear “A”s and “C”s on their uniforms.  That bodes well for the veteran leadership in the room, but it’s not sustainable over the long term.  Forget the Third and Fourth Lines, the Grizzlies have yet to demonstrate any Second Line scoring whatsoever.  The good news is that The Grizzlies are full of talented BCHL rookies who have loads of upside and promise.  It is also good news to report that the chances have been there and frankly, I can’t remember when I last witnessed this large a number of posts and crossbars hit by a Grizzlies team.  On Saturday night vs Chilliwack, Cole Pickup, Nick Guiney and Brayden Geslinger combined for 4 posts or crossbars.  The Grizzlies can and will score more goals, they just can’t wait much longer to make that happen. 

 

That said, help is on the way and the youngsters look ready to play a bigger role.  #15 Kevan Mokhtari (98’), with his breathtaking speed looks to be just millimetres away from scoring a hat trick on any given night and the same can be said of his line mate, #20 Tyler Welsh (97’).  Add to that mix, the impressive 98’ born D-Man in Drayson Pears who broke up no less than two, back to back, 2 on 1 breakaways on Sunday and you can sleep well knowing that help is right around the corner.

 

#31 Mitchell Benson on his way to a 26 saves on 27 shots performance vs Prince George

Meanwhile after five games, the club has been steeled by the fact that both of the new 18 year old goaltenders, Matt Galajda and Mitchell Benson have been better than good.  They have literally been lights out on certain occasions.  Benson for his part on Sunday made several huge stops in OT which bought his team the time they needed to figure out the Spruce Kings goalie, Liam McCloskey who was impressive in his own right.  The Defencemen have been strong in general and the new face on the roster, American Import #2 Chuck Bennis, has assumed a vital role on the blue line, especially with Brett Stirling out of the lineup for the foreseeable future with what is hopefully not a serious lower body injury.

 

The best news of all was what I saw from the many scouts at the Showcase.  Each appeared to be suffering from various different levels of Carpel Tunnel Syndrome while watching Grizzlies games. They certainly were busy scribbling and taking notes throughout the Grizzlies action from what I saw.  If you think that might just be anecdotal observations on the writer’s part, I can sure the reader that I heard personally from many of the scouts and BCHL officials at the Bauer Showcase, that “the 2015/16 Grizzlies are a very talented and young team with loads of potential”.  In short they were all impressed.

 

The Grizzlies salute the sizeable travelling "Grizzlies Nation" on Sunday

So it’s off to the Home Opener tomorrow night at The Q Centre, game time 7pm.  I hope to see you Thursday night.  Until then, I guess I’ll just enjoy this Orange Coloured Gatorade as I type away up here in the Broadcast Booth while I watch the Westshore Wolves play, there's literally cases of this stuff everywhere!  -CC

The Grizzlies Should Be The Unknown: A Weekend Recap

I am not a gambler, in fact I have never had much interest in such things.  Other than my $20 Playoff Hockey Pool and my Annual NCAA Final Four College Basketball Pool, I would say that I almost never lay a bet on anything for that matter.  When I was in Las Vegas a couple of years ago, I walked up to at a $5 Blackjack Table just for fun with a $20 bill in my wallet and walked away penniless in about the time I can hold my breath at the bottom of a swimming pool.  Get the picture?

 

I know nothing about gambling or odds or Vegas Bookies other than the fact that those guys sure know what they are doing and rarely lose money.  But one thing I do know is that the one fear for bookies is the concept of the unknown.  In sports, that’s the team who nobody can figure out, the golfer who suddenly gets hot  2 weeks before The Masters or the race car driver who suddenly catches lightning in a bottle at Daytona.

 

 

I always loved Paul Newman as Fast Eddie Felson in The Colour of Money as he described to Tom Cruise's girlfriend in the film the concept of “the unknown” in gambling and the power of it:

 

As Fast Eddie sat watching Cruise's character cleaning up the balls on the pool table he remarked: “He should be the unknown. I mean that would be nice, that would be beautiful.  You could play around with that, you could control that. You know what I mean?”  In the scene you could see his mind racing at the thought of leveraging for profit the phenom Cruise's ability in 9-Ball.

 

What a weekend the Grizzlies had last weekend, two big wins and both featuring a bucket full of goals and tons of offense. First to fall were the Alberni Valley Bulldogs who fell 8-4 to the Grizzlies. The first period started with by both clubs exchanging Power Play goals, the Grizzlies Thomas Gobeil scoring his 8th as a Grizzly in only 11 games played for Victoria.  Jay Mackie and Ayden MacDonald would make it 3-1 in favour of the Grizzlies by the end of two periods and the vibe in the Q Centre was "two points on the way".  But the 3rd Period was when the gasoline would really get poured on the fire offensively for the Grizzlies.  Brett Gruber would score a hat trick, his second of the year and Dane Gibson, Cole Pickup (Shorthanded) and Zach Dixon would also all score. The game would end 8-4 Grizzlies. The debacle of the previous weekend seemed a distant memory.

 

There would be more of the same the very next night with a 6-2 victory over the Prince George Spruce Kings and it would be thanks to many of the weekend's usual suspects in the scoring.  In the 1st Period, Cole Pickup would bat a puck out of mid air in the crease to open the scoring and the Ayden MacDonald would score 11 seconds into the 2nd Period, all of which would setup the Grizzlies for a routine victory on the night. Dane Gibson who would eventually be named BCHL Player of The Week would score two goals in the second half of the contest as would Brett Gruber and Zach Dixon, each picking up a goal themselves.

 

The Victoria Grizzlies are two weeks away from the playoffs and without question they are the BCHL’s absolute #1 “Unknown Team”.  They are without debate the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs.  If Eddie Felson was the “Stakehorse” of the Grizzlies right now, he would be very exited about the prospect of what he might be able to do concerning controlling the unknown.

 

Here is my Top 10 List as to why the Grizzlies are the most dangerous team in the league heading into the playoffs. 

 

1)      The Grizzlies Powerplay performance is tops at 26.85% efficiency, a full 2 percentage points against their nearest competitor, Alberni Valley.
2)      The team has scored no less than 58 Powerplay goals on the season and now sits at #2 in the league in that category.  Alberni Valley has scored 60, but with 25 more opportunities.  
3)      The Grizzlies have no less than five players at 20 goals and potentially could finish the year with ten players at 10+ goals scored before the playoffs commence.  On any given night any of the 20 skaters can score.
4)      The Grizzlies have scored 198 goals on the season and with 5 games to go, that number could easily eclipse the figures of previous seasons including those of the entire “Fitzgerald Era”.  
5)      The Grizzlies possess the scariest set of offensively gifted D-Men in the BCHL with no less than 34 goals scored by the defensemen so far.  No other team is close.  Even the BCHL goal scoring champion Nanaimo Clippers have only scored 29 goals by their D-Men. 
6)      The Penalty Killers are the league’s best as far as I am concerned.  Not only can these PK specialists shut down the opposition during the man advantage, but they can score as well.  The Grizzlies are tied with Coquitlam in Short-handed goals at 12. 
7)      The supporting cast features a large number of players all of whom can and do contribute to the offense on a nightly basis.  In short this team can flat out put the puck in the net and on some nights, they look like they can score for fun, all four lines.
8)      The Grizzlies lead the BCHL with no less than 361 assists, while the Nanaimo Clippers who have scored 24 more goals on the season have registered only 357 assists.  What does that mean?  It means that the Grizzlies can pass the puck better than any other team in the league.
9)      Opposition Shots on Goal (SOG) have fallen all year.  The team which was being outshot 46% of the time under the old coaching regime is now being outshot only 25% of the time, a drop of 20 full percentage points in less than three months.
10)   The Grizzlies goalies do not lead the league in very many categories, but the team goals against average has been slowly dropping all year in spite of several lop-sided shocker losses games from earlier in the season.  In short they are far better now than they were in October. Far better.

 

The analytics look good, yes, but best of all is the radar scope.  The Grizzlies, through no fault of their own have managed to very quietly amass this incredible record.  And nobody is watching.  Walk around your average BCHL rink on  Friday night, I do.  You know what I hear?  "Penticton, its over, the Vees, they have it.  Nanaimo will finish second, they're too good." 

 

The Grizzlies have done all this largely by virtue of the fact that they have lost a good number of close games and also suffered 10 Overtime losses this season.  The good news on that is that 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 OTs do not exist in the Playoffs.  In any playoff games in which the Grizzlies find themselves tied after 60 minutes, both teams will play OT with 5 skaters.  That will help the Grizzlies who have frankly not been great all year in 4-4 OT. 

 

But back to that original point, the Grizzlies might just be getting hot at right about the perfect time of the year.  If they keep this up, they will be like a heavily armed supersonic attack aircraft travelling at tree top level, well under enemy radars, all ready to pounce on any unsuspecting target along the way.  Most BCHL pundits can’t see that.  But I can and I don't even play pool.

 

 

 

All I know is that if Fast Eddie was here, I think he would know exactly what to do in this situation.  I mean that would be nice, that would be beautiful.